West Virginia: DeSart model shows Trump in the lead
The DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 33.3% for Clinton, and 66.7% for Trump in West Virginia.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, don't rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 61.5% of the two-party vote in West Virginia. The results of the DeSart model for Trump are thus 5.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in West Virginia.