Elway released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Elway poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 24.0% declared that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from August 9 to August 13, among a random sample of 500 registered voters. The error margin is +/-4.5 points. This means that the levels of voter support for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Washington sees Clinton at 59.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 5.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Elway poll. This deviation is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 58.6% of the two-party vote in Washington. That is, the PollyVote is 5.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's margin of error.