Christopher Newport Univ.CNU published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Virginia were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
In Virginia, the popular vote is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Christopher Newport Univ.CNU poll results
Of those who answered the question, 45.0% said that they would vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 33.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 16 to October 19 among 834 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the difference between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 57.7% for Clinton and 42.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Virginia polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 56.0%. This value is 1.7 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Christopher Newport Univ.CNU poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Virginia. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 3.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.