The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 54.4% for Clinton, and 45.7% for Trump in Virginia. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was predicted to obtain 45.0% of the vote.
Historically, Virginia has been a battleground state, in which neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party has had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular interest.
Putting the results in context
Single models can contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.