Tennessee: Substantial lead for Trump in new Vanderbilt University*Vanderbilt* poll

Results of a new poll conducted by Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt were published. The poll asked interviewees from Tennessee for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.

Of those who responded, 33.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted from September 19 to October 2 with 1000 registered voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.4 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 59.0% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. This means that the combined PollyVote is 1.9 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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