The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 64.6% of the two-party vote share in New York, whereas Trump will end up with 35.4%. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to gain only 64.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be regarded with caution, since they can contain large biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 63.2% of the two-party vote in New York. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.