Goucher CollegeGoucher College published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Maryland were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
Of those who answered the question, 58.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 17 to September 20 among 514 likely voters. Given the poll's error margin of +/-4.3 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 69.4% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maryland. In comparison to her numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 65.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. This means that Polly's prediction is 4.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is significant.