Results of a new poll administered by Emerson were distributed. The poll asked interviewees from Connecticut for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
The results show that 50.0% of interviewees indicated that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 35.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from September 2 to September 5 with 1000 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they often incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 58.8% for Clinton and 41.2% for Trump. In the most recent Emerson poll on April 11 Clinton obtained only 54.6%, while Trump obtained 45.5%.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 59.7% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 0.9 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this deviation is negligible.