Detroit Free Press released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
Detroit Free Press poll results
Of those who answered the question, 46.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 36.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 1 to October 3 with 600 likely voters. Given the poll's margin of error of +/-4.0 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be treated with caution, as they can include large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 56.1% for Clinton and 43.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Michigan has Clinton at 56.5% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Detroit Free Press poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.7% of the two-party vote in Michigan. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is negligible.