Michigan: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 55.9% for Clinton, and 44.1% for Trump in Michigan. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was predicted to obtain 43.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.8% of the two-party vote in Michigan. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Michigan.