Michigan: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 55.9% for Clinton, and 44.1% for Trump in Michigan. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was predicted to obtain 43.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 54.8% of the two-party vote in Michigan. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Michigan.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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