In the latest forecast, the combined PollyVote predicts that Clinton will achieve 53.9% of the national two-party vote, compared to 46.1% for Trump. There is a consensus currently dominating the six available component methods. Each of them predict a lead for Clinton.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are aggregated polls with a vote share of 53.3% for Clinton. The prediction markets present the largest deviation from PollyVote's forecast and predict Clinton to have 59.8% of the vote.
Trump has however become the new favorite in expert surveys and prediction markets. During 21 days had won an additional 2.5 percentage points in expert surveys, making this longest running upward trend.
The Citizen forecasts forecast of 52.6% for the candidate of the Democratic party is notably high relative to previous elections. In fact, this is the method's highest forecast at that time in the campaign since 2008, when Barack Obama ran against John McCain. At that time, expectation polls predicted a vote share of 55.1% for Barack Obama.