Results of a new poll carried out by OpinionWorks were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Maryland for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
OpinionWorks poll results
Of those who answered the question, 54.0% said that they intend to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 25.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 18 to August 30 with 754 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.6 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can contain substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 68.4% for Clinton and 31.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 69.5%. Relative to her numbers in the OpinionWorks poll Clinton's poll average is 1.1 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 65.5% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the PollyVote is 2.9 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is negligible.