The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Illinois were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU poll results
According to the results, 53.0% of respondents plan to cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 28.0% are going to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 27 to October 2 with 865 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the difference in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 65.4% for Clinton and 34.6% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Illinois polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 59.2%. This value is 6.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU poll. This difference is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 60.0% of the two-party vote in Illinois. This means that the combined PollyVote is 5.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.