Siena published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Siena poll results
Of those who responded, 54.0% said that they will vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 30.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 13 to October 17, among a random sample of 611 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they may contain substantial errors. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 64.3% for Clinton and 35.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in New York has Clinton at 62.5% of the two-party vote. In comparison to her numbers in the Siena poll Clinton's poll average is 1.9 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 63.2% of the two-party vote in New York. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.1 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is insignificant.