The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 39.4% of the two-party vote share in Kentucky, while Trump will end up with 60.6%. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to win 39.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models can incorporate substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 61.0% of the two-party vote in Kentucky. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 0.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Kentucky.