Issues and Leaders model shows Clinton in the lead

The Issues and Leaders model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.8% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.2%.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models should be regarded with caution, as they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.5 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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