The Issues and Leaders model released an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will collect 51.8% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 48.2%.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models should be regarded with caution, as they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should check how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.5 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.