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Iowa: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.3% for Clinton, and 49.7% for Trump in Iowa. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was still predicted to garner 50.1% of the vote.

Iowa is traditionally a swing state, where the Democratic and Republican candidates have often achieved similar levels of voter support. This is why the election outcome here is regarded critical in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 50.4% of the two-party vote in Iowa. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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