The Holbrook & DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 53.4% for Clinton, and 46.6% for Trump. In comparison, on October 21 Trump was still predicted to obtain 46.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton is currently at 50.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 3.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Holbrook & DeSart model.
The Holbrook & DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Holbrook & DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.