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Holbrook & DeSart model shows Clinton in the lead


The Holbrook & DeSart model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a major vote share of 53.4% for Clinton, and 46.6% for Trump. In comparison, on October 21 Trump was still predicted to obtain 46.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton is currently at 50.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 3.4 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Holbrook & DeSart model.

The Holbrook & DeSart model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Holbrook & DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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