Georgia: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 47.3% for Clinton, and 52.7% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to collect 48.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, don't put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote in Georgia. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.