Georgia: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 47.3% for Clinton, and 52.7% for Trump in Georgia. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to collect 48.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, don't put too much trust in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, research in forecasting recommends to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote in Georgia. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 0.3 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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