Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Vermont were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 26.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 2 to September 5 with 600 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's margin of error of +/-3.9 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, a good strategy is to not be overly confident the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 66.9% of the two-party vote in Vermont. This means that the PollyVote is 2.5 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is negligible.