Arizona: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 48.9% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will win 51.1%. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was predicted to collect 50.8% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 51.5% of the two-party vote in Arizona. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 0.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Arizona.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.