The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 48.9% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will win 51.1%. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was predicted to collect 50.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 51.5% of the two-party vote in Arizona. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 0.4 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Arizona.