The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.2% for Clinton, and 48.8% for Trump in Ohio. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to achieve 51.2% of the vote.
In Ohio, the popular vote is often close. Therefore, the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often contain substantial errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.8% of the two-party vote in Ohio. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.4 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Ohio.