DeSart & Holbrook model in North Dakota: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 39.1% for Clinton, and 60.9% for Trump in North Dakota. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was predicted to win 60.7% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models may include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 59.2% of the two-party vote in North Dakota. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 1.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Dakota.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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