DeSart & Holbrook model in North Dakota: Trump is in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 39.1% for Clinton, and 60.9% for Trump in North Dakota. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was predicted to win 60.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models may include large errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 59.2% of the two-party vote in North Dakota. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 1.7 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Dakota.