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DeSart & Holbrook model in New Hampshire: Clinton is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 54.2% for Clinton, and 45.8% for Trump in New Hampshire. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to win only 53.9% of the vote.

Historically, New Hampshire has been a battleground state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to clinch that state's electoral college votes. Hence, predictions in this state are of particular value.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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