DeSart & Holbrook model in Mississippi: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 43.5% for Clinton, and 56.5% for Trump in Mississippi. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to win only 43.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may contain large errors. Rather than relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The current PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in Mississippi. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 1.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Mississippi.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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