DeSart & Holbrook model in Louisiana: Trump is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 42.8% of the two-party vote share in Louisiana, while Trump will end up with 57.3%. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to end up with 43.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Hence, you should not have too much faith in the results of a single econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, one should consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Louisiana. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 1.2 percentage points below the combined PollyVote in Louisiana.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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