The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will garner 63.0% of the two-party vote share in Illinois, while Trump will end up with 37.0%. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was still predicted to achieve 37.8% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, since they may incorporate substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 60.2% of the two-party vote in Illinois. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.8 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.