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DeSart & Holbrook model in Florida: Clinton is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.8% for Clinton, and 48.2% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was predicted to collect 48.1% of the vote.

In Florida, the popular vote is usually close. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they can contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy look at combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.5% of the two-party vote in Florida. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.3 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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