The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will receive 65.5% of the two-party vote share in California, while Trump will win 34.5%. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to gain only 63.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single models, one should look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 62.4% of the two-party vote in California. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 3.1 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in California.