The DeSart & Holbrook model is included in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 40.1% of the two-party vote share in Arkansas, whereas Trump will end up with 59.9%. In comparison, on October 20, Clinton was predicted to end up with only 40.0% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models can contain large errors, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, the recommended strategy use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on different methods and data.
The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote expects Trump to gain 57.5% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 2.4 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.