IBD/TIPP released the results of a new national poll, in which respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
IBD/TIPP poll results
According to the results, former New York Senator Hillary Clinton and billionaire Donald Trump have the same level of support, each with 42.0% of the vote.
This poll was conducted via phone from October 16 to October 21, among a random sample of 791 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's error margin of +/-3.6 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, a good strategy is to not have too much confidence in the results of a single poll. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the recommended strategy look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. The results of the actual poll mean 50.0 % for Clinton and 50.0 % for Trump in the two-party vote share. In the most recent IBD/TIPP poll on October 19 Clinton received 51.2%, while Trump received only 48.8%.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.3%. In comparison to the average forecast of other polls Clinton performed 3.3 percentage points worse in the poll. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% and Trump 46.1% of the two-party vote. Clinton has 3.9 percentage points less when the results of the poll are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.