Results of a new poll conducted by Christopher Newport Univ.CNU were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Virginia for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Historically, Virginia has been a swing state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions here are of particular value.
Christopher Newport Univ.CNU poll results
The results show that 44.0% of respondents said that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 29.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 11 to October 14. A total of 809 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-3.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, because they may incorporate large errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 60.3% for Clinton and 39.7% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 56.6% of the major two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Virginia. In comparison to her numbers in the Christopher Newport Univ.CNU poll Clinton's poll average is 3.8 percentage points lower. This deviation is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.1% of the two-party vote in Virginia. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 6.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.