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California: New KABC/SurveyUSA poll has Trump behind by 26 points

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KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from California were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
56

Clinton

30

Trump

According to the results, 56.0% of interviewees intend to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.

The poll was in the field between October 13 and October 15. The sample size was 725 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

Single polls often incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump.

Results vs. other polls

Looking at an average of California polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 62.0%. Compared to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 3.2 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 2.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is negligible.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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