KABC/SurveyUSA published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from California were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
According to the results, 56.0% of interviewees intend to give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% are going to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was in the field between October 13 and October 15. The sample size was 725 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of California polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 62.0%. Compared to her numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll Clinton's poll average is 3.2 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 62.3% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, Polly's combined forecast is 2.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error shows that this difference is negligible.