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Washington: New Elway poll shows Clinton with 19 points lead


Elway published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

Elway poll results




According to the results, 43.0% of respondents will cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 24.0% will cast a ballot for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was carried out from August 9 to August 13 among 500 registered voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.

Results in comparison to other polls

Clinton is currently at 59.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Washington. This value is 5.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Elway poll. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 58.6% of the two-party vote in Washington. This means that Polly's forecast is 5.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is significant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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