Elway published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Elway poll results
According to the results, 43.0% of respondents will cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 24.0% will cast a ballot for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from August 9 to August 13 among 500 registered voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-4.5 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 59.1% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Washington. This value is 5.1 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Elway poll. This difference is outside the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 58.6% of the two-party vote in Washington. This means that Polly's forecast is 5.6 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is significant.