Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Tennessee were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt poll results
Of those who responded, 33.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 19 to October 2, among a random sample of 1000 registered voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.4 percentage points, the spread in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 42.9% for Clinton and 57.1% for Trump.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 1.8 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is negligible.