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Politico/Morning Consult poll: Clinton holds marginal advantage

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Results of a new national poll conducted by Politico/Morning Consult were spread. The poll asked interviewees for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.

Politico/Morning Consult poll results
46

Clinton

40

Trump

The results show that 46.0% of interviewees are going to give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted via Internet from October 19 to October 20 among 1395 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not be too confident the results of a single poll. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.

In order to make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 53.5% for Clinton and 46.5% for Trump. On October 15 Clinton obtained only 52.9% in the Politico/Morning Consult poll and Trump obtained 47.1%.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.4%. This value is 0.1 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Politico/Morning Consult poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.4 points above polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error indicates that this difference is insignificant.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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