Oregon: New The Oregonian*The Oregonian* poll has Trump trailing by 10 points
By The OregonianThe Oregonian released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Oregon were asked for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
The OregonianThe Oregonian poll results
The results show that 46.0% of interviewees will give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 36.0% will give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 4 to October 14, among a random sample of 608 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they sometimes contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, we translate them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 56.1% for Clinton and 43.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Oregon sees Clinton at 55.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the The OregonianThe Oregonian poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 57.0% of the two-party vote in Oregon. This means that the PollyVote is 0.9 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error indicates that this difference is negligible.
