New Siena poll in New York: Trump trails by a whopping margin
By Siena released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from New York were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Siena poll results
The results show that 54.0% of interviewees said that they would give their vote to former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 13 to October 17 among 611 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's error margin of +/-4.6 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls may contain substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 64.3% for Clinton and 35.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of New York polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 62.5%. In comparison to her numbers in the Siena poll Clinton's poll average is 1.9 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 63.1% of the two-party vote in New York. That is, the PollyVote is 1.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.
