ARG published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, respondents were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
ARG poll results
Of those who answered the question, 49.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted via phone from October 17 to October 20 among 1006 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.2 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include large biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 53.9% for Clinton and 46.2% for Trump. On August 20 Clinton received only 52.8% in the ARG poll and Trump received only 0.0%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 53.4% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls. In comparison to numbers in the ARG poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote.