WBUR/MassINC released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Massachusetts were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
The results show that 57.0% of participants would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 16 among 502 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.4 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they may contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 64.8% for Clinton and 35.2% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 64.2%. Relative to her numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll Clinton's poll average is 0.6 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.4% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.