Results of a new poll administered by Goucher CollegeGoucher College were distributed. The poll asked respondents from Maryland for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll results
The results show that 58.0% of interviewees indicated that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 25.0% would vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 17 and September 20. The sample size was 514 likely voters. If one takes into account the poll's margin of error of +/-4.3 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they may contain large errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 69.9% for Clinton and 30.1% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Maryland polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 69.4%. Compared to her numbers in the Goucher CollegeGoucher College poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 65.6% of the two-party vote in Maryland. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 4.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is significant.