MPRC (D)MPRC (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maine were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
MPRC (D)MPRC (D) poll results
Of those who answered the question, 49.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 7 to October 9 among 892 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, since they often contain substantial errors. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The corresponding figures are 55.1% for Clinton and 44.9% for Trump. In the latest MPRC (D)MPRC (D) poll on September 17 Clinton received only 52.9%, while Trump received 47.1%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 53.1% of the major two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Maine. This value is 2 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the MPRC (D)MPRC (D) poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 55.3% of the two-party vote in Maine. That is, Polly's prediction is 0.2 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.