MPRC (D)MPRC (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maine were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
MPRC (D)MPRC (D) poll results
According to the results, 49.0% of respondents indicated that they would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out from October 14 to October 15 with 890 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.3 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, you should look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 55.7% for Clinton and 44.3% for Trump. To compare: Only 52.9% was gained by Clinton in the MPRC (D)MPRC (D) poll on September 17, for Trump this result was 47.1%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 53.9% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maine. In comparison to her numbers in the MPRC (D)MPRC (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 1.8 percentage points lower. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 55.4% of the two-party vote in Maine. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 0.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's error margin.