Emerson released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Arizona were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who replied, 44.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between October 2 and October 4. The sample size was 600 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.9 points, which means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they may contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert the candidates' raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields figures of 51.2% for Clinton and 48.8% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Arizona polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.9%. This value is 0.3 percentage points lower than his corresponding numbers in the Emerson poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 48.7% of the two-party vote in Arizona. This means that the PollyVote is 2.5 points below his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is negligible.