Detroit Free Press published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Michigan were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Detroit Free Press poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 36.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between October 1 and October 3. The sample size was 600 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.0 points, which means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls can contain substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, one should rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 56.1% for Clinton and 43.9% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 57.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Michigan. In comparison to her numbers in the Detroit Free Press poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points higher. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.8% of the two-party vote in Michigan. That is, the PollyVote is 1.3 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin suggests that this deviation is insignificant.