Results of a new poll conducted by Landmark CommunicationsLandmark Communications were released. The poll asked participants from Georgia for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Landmark CommunicationsLandmark Communications poll results
According to the results, 42.0% of interviewees will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 48.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 11 to October 12, among a random sample of 1400 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, as they may include large biases. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, you should look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 46.7% for Clinton and 53.3% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Georgia polls, Trump's two-party vote share is currently at 52.8%. This value is 0.5 percentage points lower than his respective numbers in the Landmark CommunicationsLandmark Communications poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 52.0% of the two-party vote in Georgia. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 1.3 points below his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's margin of error.