The Jerome model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. According to the model, Clinton will collect 42.8% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, while Trump will end up with 57.2%.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be treated with caution, since they can include large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Arizona. The results of the Jerome model for Trump are thus 5.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arizona.