The Issues and Leaders model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 51.8% for Clinton, and 48.2% for Trump.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single index models, because they may contain large errors. Instead of relying on results from single index models, we recommend to use combined index models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
Comparison to other index models
An average of recent index models sees Clinton at 53.3% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.5 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.
The Issues and Leaders model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.1 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.