The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Illinois were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU poll results
The results show that 53.0% of interviewees indicated to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 28.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 27 to October 2, among a random sample of 865 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.3 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they can contain large errors. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 65.4% for Clinton and 34.6% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of Illinois polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 59.2%. This value is 6.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the The Simon Poll/SIUThe Simon Poll/SIU poll. This margin is outside the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 59.9% of the two-party vote in Illinois. This means that Polly's prediction is 5.5 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's sampling error.