Holbrook & DeSart model: Clinton is in the lead

The Holbrook & DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 53.1% for Clinton, and 46.9% for Trump. In comparison, on October 20 Trump was predicted to garner 46.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models can incorporate substantial errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy consult combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

If we look at an average of econometric models, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 50.0%. This value is 3.1 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Holbrook & DeSart model.

The Holbrook & DeSart model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the Holbrook & DeSart model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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